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characterizing lumber markets

The 2006 Softwood Lumber Agreement set price triggers which adjusted quota or export taxes depending on lumber market prices.

The debate will be what are the price triggers and what are the adjustments.  Relying on historical averages can be misleading

  • what is the reference time frame?

  • how do we treat the great recession?

The charts to the right and below try to characterize the market into poor, declining, good and peak markets.  Export controls in a future agreement must not limit supply during peak markets as consumers will turn to other sources of lumber or non-lumber alternatives.

Market characterization - Nov 2018 Annua
Market characterization - Nov 2018.png
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