characterizing lumber markets

The 2006 Softwood Lumber Agreement set price triggers which adjusted quota or export taxes depending on lumber market prices.

​

The debate will be what are the price triggers and what are the adjustments.  Relying on historical averages can be misleading

• what is the reference time frame?

• how do we treat the great recession?

​

The charts to the right and below try to characterize the market into poor, declining, good and peak markets.  Export controls in a future agreement must not limit supply during peak markets as consumers will turn to other sources of lumber or non-lumber alternatives.